Extrapolating Trends in Distributed System Costs: The Future of Distributed Graphic Computing

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At the beginning of the microprocessor revolution, Gordon Moore at Intel considered the economies of scale evident after a few years of increasing the density of transistors on processor chips and projected that transistor density would double every year for years to come. This observation became known as Moore's Law. Although it has been modified over the years, the fundamental advance of computing technologies have brought remarkable accessibility to computing power as a result of rapidly declining costs and improving performance. This paper examines the historical data for microprocessors, hard drives, network interface cards, graphics processors, random access memory, and datacommunications to identify basic patterns in the price to performance relationship. The resulting patterns are used to project what a distributed graphics computer system might look like in ten years and what new or improved human-technology interactions might be supported. As compared to current and past systems, the leading edge technologies are likely to be even more focused on graphics processing and network connectivity with wider access based on lower costs.

Keywords: Distributed Systems, Human-Technology Useability
Stream: Human Technologies and Usability
Presentation Type: Virtual Presentation in English
Paper: , ,

Dr. G. Kent Webb

Professor, School of Business, San Jose State University
San Jose, CA, USA

Dr. G. Kent Webb is a professor in the school of business at San Jose State University teaching classes in Management Information Systems and Decision Sciences. Much of Dr. Webb's research has been focsed on technology forecasting which has appeared in Issues in Information Systems, the International Journal of Forecasting, and the Journal of High Technology Management Research. Dr. Webb has been a consultant for Lockheed, ATT, Unisys, Loral, TDK, and other technology companies. Although he acknolwedges that computer gamers lead the way in advancing technology, he has himself retired from active participation in serious computer gaming.

Ref: T08P0099