Economic, Social and Political Scenarios of Mexico in the Next Two Decades
This paper is aimed to analyze the economic, social and political foreseeable scenarios for México by the year 2030. Starting from the analyzes recent economic, social and political developments, I will search the trends in specific economic issues such as international commerce, energy, employment, environmental constraints, etc. Social trends such as demographic transition, fertility, population growth, aging, migration, education, health, housing, human development, etc. and political trends such as democratization processes, social upheaval, human rights, etc. will be discussed. Finally, the research will conclude describing and discussing the scenarios at three levels: pessimistic, more realistic and optimistic. The key findings will be analyzed in more detail. The methodology to be used are time series analysis for historical data, correlation analysis for data series of the different variables, the Delphi technique, panel of experts, interviews to some clue economic, social and political actors. Also for the analysis, will be used prospective techniques. The final paper will identify the factors that will be most important in shaping the economic, social and political landscape of México in 2030 and beyond. It will examine how the Mexican society will cope with the broad range of challenges and will assess what conditions may be key to transforming economic, social and political trends into security and social welfare issues.
Keywords: Economics Scenarios, Social Scenarios, Political Scenarios, Mexico
Dr. José G. Vargas-Hernández
Research Professor, Ciencias Económico Administrativas, Institutio Tecnológico de Cd. Guzmán